NGX Daily Market Summary & Analysis
Friday, July 18, 2025

Market Overview

The NGX ASI notched a +1.00% gain today, closing at 130,283.87 and boosting its YTD performance to a robust 27.53%. Despite a slight -1.55% dip in turnover (₦37.22B), trading activity remained elevated on the back of 2.13B shares exchanged—a doubling versus the previous day, flagging renewed risk appetite. The market breadth was distinctly bullish (advancers/decliners ratio: 2.16x), with 54 gainers versus 25 laggards, echoing the prevailing positive sentiment. Standouts included NEWGOLD ETF (+12.40%) as the day's best performer, while UPDC PLC closed as the top loser (-10%).

Significant Trends in Market Breadth

• Breadth Indicator: Strikingly bullish with a 2.16x advancers-to-decliners ratio.
• Volume Patterns: High volume in 67 companies, but 74 saw reduced activity, hinting at investor concentration around select names.
• Turnover Drop: Slight turnover contraction despite surging volume suggests lower average trade sizes—retail activity picking up, or price corrections at play.

Top Gainers & Losers Highlights

• Gainers:
  • NEWGOLD ETF +12.40% (₦58,000): Benefited from a momentum flip, closing above both the 15D and 50D MAs, with RSI resetting lower from yesterday, suggesting the surge might attract more attention, not exhaustion.
  • LEARNAFRCA +10.00%: Maintains steady RSI ~59, solid price action with low PE signaling room for rerating.
  • GREENWETF +10.00%, bullish ETF.
• Losers:
  • REDSTAREX -9.97%: Red hot RSI at 95.6 points to heavy overbought territory; a reversal risk is rising here, likely profit-taking or markdown after unsustainable surge.
  • UNIONDICON -9.62%: Similarly hazardous RSI (97.1).
  • STERLINGNG and FIRSTHOLDCO notable for high RSIs despite price drops, suggesting "blow-off top" territory or distribution phases.

Deeper Insights & Forward-Looking Observations

• Turnover Dip: Slight decrease in turnover (-1.55%) despite big volume uptrend flags more retail trades, lower average deal size, and possibly some strategy reshuffling or profit-taking by institutions.
• Bullish Momentum (Technical highlights):
  • NEWGOLD ETF, GUINEAINS, AFRIPRUD crossed above their 15DMA—portfolio managers may want to research if these uptrends are sustainable.
  • AFRIPRUD combines technical strength (15DMA cross, up +3.03%) with a healthy 1.27% dividend yield and a defensive 0.64 beta—a rare trifecta for both income and momentum seekers!
• Bearish Momentum:
  • RTBRISCOE closed below its 15DMA, signaling continued selling pressure. This is also present among some YTD laggards, which have failed rebounds.
  • VFDGROUP and FGS202768 display technical weakness—caution warranted.
• Unusual Volume Alerts:
  • FCMB: Staggering 7,475% of 90-Day Avg Volume. This degree of trading typically signals major news, rumors, or a pivotal institutional trade. Price faded -2.04%; monitoring for follow-through or mean reversion is advisable.
  • CHAMS and AIICO also far exceeded norms—these could be stealth accumulation or exit signals.
  • FIRSTHOLDCO also had 134% of 90-day average—note that it appears in both volume and trading activity tables.
• YTD Top Gainers:
  • NASCON up 180% YTD with RSI 95+, an extraordinary momentum-run; historically, RSIs this high have often preceded short-term corrections.
  • Both BUACEMENT and DANGCEM among key YTD movers, portending continued strength in industrials/materials.
  • FIRSTHOLDCO shows up among both today's losers and YTD gainers—possibly signaling sector rotation or profit taking after a strong run.
• YTD Top Losers:
  • ACADEMY: Despite a sharp -24.32% in the last 5 days, it’s still up 122.2% YTD—volatile but with spectacular year-long returns.
  • DEAPCAP, CONHALLPLC and R T BRISCOE remain deep in the red year to date, and technicals suggest no imminent reversal.

Contrarian Signals

• FIRSTHOLDCO: Despite being a top gainer YTD (+20%+) and unusual volume leader, it was a top loser today (-4.10%) with a very high RSI. This mix of indicators may point to short-term exhaustion, but historically strong stocks with this profile tend to attract "dip-buyers”—a critical juncture to track next week.
• STERLINGNG: Price declined with RSI above 70, suggesting buyer fatigue; beware chasing late.
• NEWGOLD ETF: Up strongly with RSI dropping from 53.98 to 44.56—price rally but RSI cooling can either precede further breakouts or signal missed moves; close monitoring required.
• AFRIPRUD: High dividend, low beta, AND bullish technical—when all align, this is typically a sweet spot for tactical allocation.
• REDSTAREX & UNIONDICON: RSIs at unprecedented heights (>95), even as they drop. Extreme caution!

Sector Heatmaps

Dividend-Yield vs Beta Matrix (Defensive Opportunities)

• Hidden gem: AFRIPRUD ticks the rare "high-yield, low-beta, bullish” box; could draw defensive inflows.
• Presco and SOVRENINS show value for those willing to stomach slightly more risk.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK continues to dominate institutional flows, claiming 20.2% of value. Such positioning often pre-empts earnings action or regulatory/structural moves in the sector.
• FIRSTHOLDCO, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, and UBA are also on the institutional radar, each drawing heavy volumes and trade counts.

Stocks with High Dividend Yield also in Momentum Tables

• AFRIPRUD once again stands out—combining strong upward price momentum with a defensive income profile. For retail or institutional investors seeking growth-plus-income, this is a rare convergence.
• SOVRENINS and GUINEAINS also join the bullish screen today alongside attractive yields.

Trader & Investor Suggestions

• Opportunity: Consider tactical exposure to AFRIPRUD and NEWGOLD ETF for momentum plus diversification. ETFs are in breakout mode.
• Caution: Be wary of stocks like REDSTAREX and UNIONDICON with sky-high RSIs (>95)—sharp reversals are statistically likely.
• Monitor FCMB and CHAMS for news or disclosure, as volumes are highly unusual.
• Contrarian Play: FIRSTHOLDCO—if decline on heavy volume is temporary, dip buyers may be rewarded, but risk remains high given strong prior run and current technicals.
• Sector Rotation Alert: Industrials, ETFs, and select Financials (especially low beta, high dividend) are themes to favor as we move deeper into Q3.

Market Activity & Trades Analysis

• Retail vs Institutional:
  • Institutional: Only 40% of trade count, but a dominant 87.35% of volume and 92.84% of traded value. This means that institutions are behind most of the big-ticket, high-volume transactions.
  • Retail: Drove 60% of trades but only 12.65% of volume; lots of small transactions—a classic late-cycle market profile or optimism from smaller investors.
• Top 5 Institutional Names:
  • ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, UBA, FIRSTHOLDCO, GTCO
  • Overlaps: These are also among the most heavily traded by retail, indicating shared focus and sector leadership as financials and banking stocks are driving most liquidity.
• Trade Patterns:
  • FirstHoldCo: Consistently attracts both retail and institutional order flow, but short-term movement is negative—watching for reversal or further breakdown.
  • Sector Note: Most traded names are from Banking—often a sign of sector rotation, index-tracking, or pre-earnings positioning.
  • Hidden Insight: When retail participation surges as market nears highs, it often precedes increased volatility or rotational moves.

Top 5 YTD Gainers & Losers (as of Today)

Actionable Key Takeaways

• Short-term traders: Consider momentum plays on ETFs (NEWGOLD, GREENWETF), but maintain stop-losses as RSIs and volume spikes suggest higher volatility ahead.
• Dividend seekers: AFRIPRUD and SOVRENINS fit "yield plus upside” profiles.
• Swing/contrarian traders: Watch FIRSTHOLDCO’s retracement; key support may attract buyers early next week.
• Conservative investors: Lean defensive, favoring stocks with high dividend, low beta, and stable technicals—e.g., AFRIPRUD and PRESCO.
• Warning: Overheated names with RSIs already >90 (REDSTAREX, ABCTRANS, NASCON) may be vulnerable to profit-taking corrections.
• News Watch: Unusual volumes in FCMB, CHAMS, AIICO—track disclosures and news for fresh catalysts.

Currency Market Note: The Naira strengthened fractionally +0.07% against the USD, closing at 1,530, signaling some stability on the FX front.